The Curve is Too Flat, and Now More People Will Die

Remember how this all started: "flatten the curve" to save lives by preventing hospital shortages. At the time, it made sense.

But that was four weeks ago, when we knew very little about what to expect. Today, the curve is now TOO flat, and too long. Hospital bed utilization is falling, not rising, and we are nowhere near a hospital shortage, or even an ICU shortage. Current projections, which keep getting revised downward, indicate that shortages are unlikely to happen in SC over the next four weeks.

SC will not experience a hospital shortage. Source: covid19.healthdata.org

SC will not experience a hospital shortage. Source: covid19.healthdata.org

Does someone need to remind the Governor what state he is in charge of (SC, not NY)?

This week, thousands of hospital workers all over the state found themselves without work, because their hospitals are struggling to avoid bankruptcy after the hit to their bottom line from ending "non-essential" medical procedures.

Before all this, SC's nursing shortage was set to be 4th in the nation. I shudder to think what nurse-to-patient ratios look like now.

Remember, this response kind of made sense four weeks ago, before we knew what was going on. But as more and more data has come to light, the Governor's orders have become more and more bizarre.

For instance, Governor McMaster has banned:

  • Fishing

  • Shopping for a new Easter outfit

  • Buying or selling jewelry

  • Buying hunting or camping supplies locally

  • Getting a haircut

  • Having a yard sale

How on earth do these things help fight the spread of coronavirus?

On top of that, the virus looks less and less deadly as time goes on:

  • 98% of all confirmed cases have survived

  • 99.7% of all estimated cases appear to have survived

  • To date, there have been 72 deaths, mostly in connection with other conditions

  • At its peak, the death toll is not expected to exceed 15 per day

(Source: SC DHEC, 04/10/20)

Death is horrible. I lost my father just 15 months ago. I grieve and pray for those who kissed their loved one goodbye at the door of the hospital, never to see them again, and don’t even get to have a public funeral due to the current restrictions.

If it were possible to end all death, we would.

But that is why it is so vital to remember that when the economy suffers, so does healthcare. When healthcare suffers, so do patients.

In the state house, I’m on the medical committee. Provider-to-patient ratios and access to care are always at the forefront of our minds.

I wonder how many patients with conditions like diabetes, heart disease, and glaucoma are going undiagnosed and untreated. I wonder how many patients will escape COVID-19 only to die of preventable diseases because society collectively freaked out and hospitals took the hit?

It is beyond time for a safe and rational response to this pandemic.

It's time to end the shutdown safely, put hospital workers back to work, and give healthy workers back their essential jobs.

If you agree, join me in calling on Gov. McMaster by signing the petition to End the Shutdown Safely!